Weird stuff rattling around in my brain:
Suppose that five years from now we are in the midst of a very strong economic recovery and all is right with the world. No, I am not interested in discussing the politics angle of this, just the airplane pricing end of it. Nor am I saying GA will automatically recover to its prior glory, but figure that the folks who want to fly will be able to afford it much better than today. No, AvGas will not ever again be $2/gallon, but if the pilot community's discretionary income is higher then we can afford to burn more of the $4-6 stuff.
What happens to used aircraft prices? Any difference single vs twin?
Presumably the prices go up, since there is more demand on roughly the same supply. However, there are also new planes around and homebuilts are a reasonably priced alternative. So do the old 60s and 70s vintage birds lag behind the pack?
What about maintenance rates? Will it be roughly the same price to overhaul an engine then as now? Will factory reman costs go up? Will the paint and interior shops be charging more?
Perhaps some of you can see what I am driving at, PLANE BANKING. After all, if you can buy a relatively inexpensive plane with runout engine in tody's buyers market and then give it a fresh MOH and sell it 5 years later for a profit you could be doing well. OBVIOUSLY you'd need somewhere safe to store the plane, but the deserts aren't full up just yet.
Alternately, this could be the ideal time to buy that "dream plane" and put it on ice (or slowly have things fixed/upgraded on it) for several years until you're ready for it.
Sure, there are ownership costs even with a non-airworthy/non-insured bird sitting at a desert tiedown. But depending upon the strength of the maket's recovery it could be very much worth it.
I'd be interested to see an inflation-corrected graph of aircraft prices over the past several decades to see how much volatility there really is associated with economic swings.
Thoughts?
ETA - Graphs here http://www.aircraftbluebookmarketline.com/
Suppose that five years from now we are in the midst of a very strong economic recovery and all is right with the world. No, I am not interested in discussing the politics angle of this, just the airplane pricing end of it. Nor am I saying GA will automatically recover to its prior glory, but figure that the folks who want to fly will be able to afford it much better than today. No, AvGas will not ever again be $2/gallon, but if the pilot community's discretionary income is higher then we can afford to burn more of the $4-6 stuff.
What happens to used aircraft prices? Any difference single vs twin?
Presumably the prices go up, since there is more demand on roughly the same supply. However, there are also new planes around and homebuilts are a reasonably priced alternative. So do the old 60s and 70s vintage birds lag behind the pack?
What about maintenance rates? Will it be roughly the same price to overhaul an engine then as now? Will factory reman costs go up? Will the paint and interior shops be charging more?
Perhaps some of you can see what I am driving at, PLANE BANKING. After all, if you can buy a relatively inexpensive plane with runout engine in tody's buyers market and then give it a fresh MOH and sell it 5 years later for a profit you could be doing well. OBVIOUSLY you'd need somewhere safe to store the plane, but the deserts aren't full up just yet.
Alternately, this could be the ideal time to buy that "dream plane" and put it on ice (or slowly have things fixed/upgraded on it) for several years until you're ready for it.
Sure, there are ownership costs even with a non-airworthy/non-insured bird sitting at a desert tiedown. But depending upon the strength of the maket's recovery it could be very much worth it.
I'd be interested to see an inflation-corrected graph of aircraft prices over the past several decades to see how much volatility there really is associated with economic swings.
Thoughts?
ETA - Graphs here http://www.aircraftbluebookmarketline.com/
