Factors Killing GA

PeterNSteinmetz

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My view is that the high price of GA is killing it, for sure, and that is due to - regulation.

That regulation increases the cost and decreases the innovation for any given product or service is rather well established.

Which is not to say it would be cheap enough to compete with either simulations or drones. Basically it is a dying hobby like a lot of the things we grew up to enjoy.

“ Everything changes and nothing stands still.” - Heraclitus
 
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My view is that the high price of GA is killing it, for sure, and that is due to - regulation.
That regulation increases the cost and decreases the innovation for any given product or service is rather well established.
How so? The same regulations have been in place for 60+ years even during the heyday of private aviation and did not hold back that growth period at all. The things that affected cost were a reduced interest in private GA in the 70s, increased tort awards, and a reduced support market which is more established than any regulatory cost increases. Matter of fact, the regulatory side has actually been changed in recent times to reduce those legacy costs yet there are no takers. That would be the answer for you to find.
 
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How so? The same regulations have been in place for 60+ years even during the heyday of private aviation and did not hold back that growth period at all. The things that affected cost were a reduced interest in private GA in the 70s, increased tort awards, and a reduced support market which is more established than any regulatory cost increases. Matter of fact, the regulatory side has actually been changed in recent times to reduce those legacy costs yet there are no takers. That would be the answer for you to find.
That this is generally the case, as I stated, has a rather large academic literature. One could start with von Mises' "Bureaucracy", for example.

I am not familiar with the literature on this as applied to aviation. However, I bet if one looked at the total number of pages in the Federal regulations pertaining to aviation it has increased substantially throughout the 60s to today.

Even in other threads here we have discussed the increased regulations for ADS-B out and for drones. Every time the Federal government adds more regulation, it adds a burden for compliance. That tends to favor large established players, decrease innovation, and increase price.

I think the next step to seriously discuss its impacts on aviation would be to look up the academic literature on this, rather than trying to rely on personal experience. Very quick search at scholar.google.com turned up the following narrative review. Probably worth a read - https://arc.aiaa.org/doi/abs/10.2514/6.2022-3621 Seems to be behind a paywall, perhaps one of the other members can access it and I will try some other routes.
 
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My view is that the high price of GA is killing it, for sure, and that is due to - regulation.

That regulation increases the cost and decreases the innovation for any given product or service is rather well established.
In my opinion, it wasn't regulations that brought about the demise of General Aviation, but Dwight David Eisenhower and Jimmy Carter.

Before Ike, the US was connected by a series of two-lane roads. The roads went through every town on the way, slowing one down. Often, they were unpaved, which, in an era before automobile air conditioning, made summer driving dusty and hot.

In those kinds of conditions, even a J-3 is an ideal alternative. Even a J-3 could beat the average speeds on the typical highway, and you'd arrive clean, cool, and fresh.

Ike championed the Interstate Highway System. Four lanes, paved, limited access, running straight between major destinations. Speed limits high enough to make them a reasonable alternative to the typical small aircraft.

My wife's sister lives about 150 miles away, just three hours by car, mostly via I-5. A 172 might take half that time to fly...but I'd have to load the car at home, drive to the airport, then unload the car and load the airplane. Reverse it at the destination; either renting a car or getting a ride from my SIL. The total transit time, *door to door*, is likely to be almost the same as directly driving. And...I'm not at the whim of weather. Among other times, we visit down there for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Weather's often bad that time of year. Many a time, I've driven the car through heavy rain or even snow to make the destination as promised. GA transport's a bit less reliable, even if I owned an IFR aircraft and had the appropriate ticket.

GA making more sense for longer trips? Perhaps, but that's where Jimmy Carter came in. He signed the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978. Commercial air travel is a lot cheaper than it used to be, making it a real competitor to GA. My wife and I can travel round trip from Seattle to Minneapolis for a bit more than a single month's hangar rent. And even with the hassles of airline travel, we'll arrive a lot quicker.

Ironically, I made a flight this weekend that illustrated the utility of General Aviation. A buddy owns a cabin on an island without a bridge connecting it to the mainland, and without ferry service. Only way there is by private boat...or aircraft. Loaded up his Cherokee Six with food and other supplies, and flew there on a gloriously clear day in just 45 minutes. Had lunch, explored the island, then returned later that afternoon.

Obviously, it was a small airplane that let that happen. But how many Americans are in the same boat?

Ron Wanttaja
 
That this is generally the case, as I stated, has a rather large academic literature. One could start with von Mises' "Bureaucracy", for example.
My reply is to your original comment below that implies to me the high price of your hobby is due to the regulations. The philosophical side of the burdens of law and rule is a separate topic and should get its own thread. Regardless, current and past aviation regulations are not the reason your weekend hobby is so expensive as they have remained constant for decades.
My view is that the high price of GA is killing it, for sure, and that is due to - regulation.

However, I bet if one looked at the total number of pages in the Federal regulations pertaining to aviation it has increased substantially throughout the 60s to today.
Depends on how you look at it. Dig deep enough and you’ll find the core regulations go back to 1939 and remained basically the same until the mid-40s when the Chicago Convention was held which led to the creation of ICAO. That group of nations agreed there should be an international regulatory foundation that would guide aviation and provide a path for global acceptance by all member nations.

So in reality, a member country’s aviation regulatory structure complies with two requirements: the management and guidance of the aviation industry within a nation state’s own borders; and provides the minimum compliance for ICAO requirements. In general, for the US FARs about 75% of those regulations apply to ICAO and bi-lateral requirements. So the FARs are not only meant to keep your personal aircraft on the straight and narrow. However, if a country decided to make rules outside of the ICAO guidance then those specific aircraft or people can only operate within that nation. For example, TCCA owner maintained aircraft, E/AB aircraft, repairman certificates, etc.

As to whether aviation regulations have “increased substantially” you’ll find that after the initial ICAO regulatory initiatives between members, the type and number of new regulations basically followed the increasing complexity of new aircraft, equipment, and airspace technologies. And while there were some regulatory additions like ELTs or ADSB, you’ll find there were usually compliance exceptions made to various operations to include your level vs an 100% compliance requirement. The ICAO would write a guidance, then each member nation would write their own regulatory versions.

The interesting thing is that of all the aviation regulatory structures found in ICAO, the US FARs are the least restrictive, the least expensive, and the most flexible of any in the world. By a long shot. If you want to see over-regulation, pop over to the EASA site and see for yourself. There’s a reason people use N-reg aircraft in the EU.

So while you may think the regulations are “holding back” private GA (not all GA) you’ll find in the big picture you actually have it made in the US when it comes to operating an aircraft.
That tends to favor large established players, decrease innovation, and increase price.
How so? Any individual can design, build, modify, and fly any type aircraft they want in the US NAS. How much that venture will cost is solely up to that individual. And there is no FAR that prevents that. That pretty much leaves all innovation up to the holder of the idea. Right?

Regardless, there still is plenty of aviation innovation in the US today. Its just not where you want it to be. Just look at the recent clean sheet designs flying, the Beechcraft Denali, Cessna Sky Courier, and all the e-VTOLs. Its out there you just need to look for it.
I think the next step to seriously discuss its impacts on aviation would be to look up the academic literature on this, rather than trying to rely on personal experience.
You'll find that most in-depth research at the "scholarly " level is proprietary. Aviation in general is not that big of an industry on a global scale especially when you get lower than the Part 135/91K levels. There are some public white papers, etc. out there but usually cover topics outside of what you're looking for. This why the industry heavily relies on consultants and their experience.

You'll also find aviation has a huge amount off variance so it is difficult to research a single topic across all disciplines. However, the biggest issue relates to even your thread title as General Aviation (GA) is not just privately owned, recreational Part 91 aircraft. I'm not aware of any useful breakout of those specific numbers but those numbers are lower than most people think when compared to the overall number of GA aircraft.

What I think is killing private recreational GA is simply the lack of interest by the up-and-coming generations (Y, Z, Alpha). But if you want a singular reason, technology killed it.
 
Agreed the US is better than many other counties, that’s for sure,

I think that any further serious discussion of the contribution of regulation to high prices in GA will require a more scholarly approach based on actual data. The rest is just guesswork based on individual experience, in other words, anecdotes. Though I see no good evidence to suggest the result will vary substantially from the well documented effects in many other areas.

I suspect however that even if GA were say 5 times cheaper, you are correct that newer generations still would not be that interested. Much easier to get your dopamine hits with a flight simulator than with real flying. Thus I see what I think is your overall point.
 
The rest is just guesswork based on individual experience, in other words, anecdotes. Though I see no good evidence to suggest the result will vary substantially from the well documented effects in many other areas.
Not guesswork, only facts. While I know you want to connect the dots to the regulatory angle, you’ll find plenty of authoritative evidence it is/was the long term effects of on-going product liability costs I mentioned above is the real culprit. The industry never recovered from those times. If you’re interested in reading those references will be happy to post.
 
Not guesswork, only facts. While I know you want to connect the dots to the regulatory angle, you’ll find plenty of authoritative evidence it is/was the long term effects of on-going product liability costs I mentioned above is the real culprit. The industry never recovered from those times. If you’re interested in reading those references will be happy to post.
Please do. I will be happy to see the quality of such analyses and how they included potentially effects of regulation.

Of course it occurs to me that these may be related. In other words, if regulations are introduced it could lead to more liability lawsuits. Though it could independently be adding new product liability laws. Might be hard to disentangle if they co-occur in time.
 
Although I think cost is part of the problem, I also think in today’s age, flying doesn’t have the “magic feel” it once did. When I was a kid, I’d look up at every plane or jet flying over as if it was some sort of magical object. While on vacation at our summer cabin, we would go to a laundry mat that was owned by a pilot, and he always had Plane and Pilot or Flying magazines lying around. I would read those magazines every week from cover to cover, and the pictures and ads seemed almost like something futuristic …so cutting edged and impressive! And the times we flew commercially, we would get dressed up, because it was a big deal.
Now, when I’ve taken my own kids flying, they’re as bored as driving in the car. Within moments of takeoff, I’ll look over to see them playing on their phones. When we’ve now flown commercial, my kids nearly always take naps (something I never did as a kid). I think the thought of flying, and the technology that goes with it, is today considered boring and mundane.
My girlfriend and I love the town of Nashville, and we fly there often in our plane, from our home in Michigan. It’s a three hour flight, and costs about $500 round trip for gas and plane parking. The same airport that I hangar at has commercial service direct to Nashville, $79 each way. Maybe we’re all crazy to continue with GA.
 
I don't think it's cost, I don't think it's regulations, although I think those things contribute. I think it's general morality, and... screens / virtual realities / facades. Too many people are living extremely shallow lives and miserable, too. There's a certain amount of effort and stick-to-it-ness in aviation and today's education is demonstrably worse than previous generations.
 
I will be happy to see the quality of such analyses and how they included potentially effects of regulation.
Hate to disappoint you but they only talk about the millions $$ (billions $$ in some reports) of product liability costs that Cessna, Beech, and the others passed on to the consumer, i.e., you. No mention of regulation costs. And if GARA hadn’t passed Cessna would have permanently closed its small GA production line. Imagine what that would have done to the bottom line of aircraft ownership.

While there are dozens of reports on this topic, we’ll start with this report: Victor E. Schwartz et al., The General Aviation Revitalization Act: How Rational Civil Justice Reform Revitalized an Industry, 67 J. AIR L. & COM. 1269 (2002)

Here are some excerpts:
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After GARA closed the deep pockets of the OEMs, those plaintiff attorneys simply moved to the vendor and servicer provider industries to line their pockets. So the same liability cost increases were passed on to the GA consumer just from a different direction. My insurance rates for a $1M policy went from $1800 to $11,000+ in roughly the same time period which I passed on to my customers. Unfortunately these increases also caused the closure of quite a few small mx providers which reduced the provider networks and you guessed it increased costs to the aircraft owner. No regulations involved.

And once GARA was passed the FAA didn’t stop there help out GA. They teamed up with NASA and started AGATE to interject $100M+ into GA with new and innovative technologies and streamline the regulatory process, i.e., reduce the effects of regulation. Here’s a quote from one report.

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I was personally involved in with the ASTS portion of AGATE and got to meet a number of stakeholders. Unfortunately your fellow GA aviators had no interest in new or innovative aircraft, so the AGATE participants shut things down to include Toyota who was working on a Rutan inspired 4 place aircraft.

All was not lost as you got Cirrus and Columbia aircraft out of the deal which were the latest and greatest design out there and all certified in record time and reduced cost thanks to AGATE. But no takers. And once again regulations were not the topic of holding the industry back.

And finally, in reality, the FAA has actually reduced the number of aviation regulations over the past years and not collectively increased them. Here is one example with the rewrite of Part 23: before and after. Count for yourself. Plus they moved Part 23 to a performance based standard to encourage innovative thinking and reducing the costs of aircraft certification. A quote from one report:

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So as I’ve questioned I don’t see where regulations have kept the costs ups in GA, but I can show you in black and white what has kept costs high with the prime culprit liability costs and no viable market growth, i.e., no public interest.
 
Thanks, I'll have a look at that article. Too bad it doesn't explicitly examine relative contributions of various factors, but it looks interesting.
 
Here is a graph of the growth in Federal regulations over a number of prior decades provided by Macroeconomic Impacts of Federal Regulation of the Manufacturing Sector, NERA Economic Consulting, commissioned by MAPI, Aug 2012, http://www.mapi.net/system/files/NERA_MAPI_FinalReport_0.pdf, p. 96

This was cited by the book “Where’s my flying car” (which I think may have been suggested to me by a member of this forum). That book attributes the decrease in innovation around this timeframe to a number of factors, including both increased regulation and increase in product liability. It is however not a really rigorous analysis and does not directly count the FARs, which I think would be more pertinent.

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and does not directly count the FARs, which I think would be more pertinent.
I would say that is paramount to our discussion. I was under the impression we were discussing only aviation regulations and not regulations in general as the chart and report above indicate? If the latter then I agree completely as the EPA and OSHA alone have added "millions" of new regulations to the register. And is one of the main reasons a large portion of the overall domestic manufacturing sector went overseas. Aviation was also dramatically affected by those same EPA/OSHA laws and increased cost, however, not in respect to the topic I thought we were discussing.
 
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I agree the actual data pertaining to the counts of the FARs is what matters most.

In the meantime, is there any good reason to assume the FAA has not followed the course of the rest of the Federal regulatory structure?

Certainly we know the number of FAA regulations has increased dramatically since when their predecessor was established, though that was a long time ago.
 
is there any good reason to assume the FAA has not followed the course of the rest of the Federal regulatory structure?
Yes. Keep in mind, aviation has been heavily regulated since day one and it was often stated only the nuclear industry was regulated more. The EPA and OSHA mentioned above are relatively new regulatory entities starting in the early 70s and are heavily influenced by other issues that do not affect aviation at its core.

Since the aviation industry started at that higher level, the current global trend is the complete opposite of other agencies which is working to reduce the regulatory effect on aviation as shown with the FAA Part 23 rewrite and the recent issue of EASA Part ML for “light aircraft” as examples.
Certainly we know the number of FAA regulations has increased dramatically since when their predecessor was established, though that was a long time ago.
Of course, but that depends on how you look at it. Outside of ongoing regulatory additions to cover new technologies or specific safety issues as mentioned before, the core aviation regulations have remained relatively flat. A simple comparison of the CARs to the FARs will show that. You can run the FAA DRS gauntlet and see for yourself or if you prefer I can post examples.

The original CARs from 1939 to about 1946 were pretty basic as the CAA still had a hands-on position of aircraft oversight. For example, only a CAA inspector could sign off an Annual inspection which included a new AWC every year.

With the formation of ICAO in the 40s the CARs were tweaked a bit to fall in line with that guidance which led to more regulatory categories. However, after about 1952 the CARs, in general, were very similar in size and tone to the current FARs. And at the same time the CAA moved to a hands-off position on aircraft oversight and issued authorizations to private individuals to handle the day-to-day things like annuals, etc. which added new regulations to manage these authorizations.

When the CARs gave way to the FARs in the 60s, there was a final adjustment to bring them into compliance international standards and agreements. So while the FAA regulations did expand from 1939 you’ll find most of that expansion was to meet existing requirements like ICAO, handle safety issues like ADs, or regulate new technologies like e-VTOLs vs simply creating regulations for internal purposes or just because. Which is something other governmental agencies seem to do on a regular basis.
 
Here is a graph of the growth in Federal regulations over a number of prior decades provided by Macroeconomic Impacts of Federal Regulation of the Manufacturing Sector, NERA Economic Consulting, commissioned by MAPI, Aug 2012, http://www.mapi.net/system/files/NERA_MAPI_FinalReport_0.pdf, p. 96

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Sorry, but this a classic example of "Correlation does not equal Causation." You could use the same plot as an explanation on why "Saturday Night Live" is not as funny as it used to be.

Regulations had some to do with the rise in costs, but a good bit of the new regulations were due to the rise of airline travel. Ratchet the FARs back to 1935, and try to run a thousand flights per day into and out of LAX with the rules of that period. And only the equipment mandated for that period.

Cancel all regulations. Is flying going to be cheap then? I realize a lot of that "regulation cost" came from the development of the hardware, but really....Look at the cost of newly-completed RV-8s. Yes, there's engine costs in there, but the regulations helped develop *reliable* engines.

Sure, people are installing non-certified engines in their airplanes and saving money. But there's a safety cost, there....
engine reliability comparison.jpg


What's killing GA is apathy on the behalf of the majority of the citizens. The average citizen isn't interested in participating in General Aviation. The view it as too expensive, dangerous, too complex, too difficult, and of limited utility.

And they're pretty much right.

Sadly, though, the typical citizen doesn't understand one key point: General Aviation provides about two-thirds of the airline pilots. Kill the GA airplanes, kill the GA airports, and the airlines themselves are going to have to pay for training aircraft and teaching students to fly and log those 1,500 hours Congress mandated.. Cheap airfares are going to go away, though more likely the airline industry will find a way to get Congress to pay for it.

The other sad aspect is that this situation has an unfortunate self-inflicted aspect to it. There are a lot of pilots who don't WANT things to change. I remember seeing squawks on the various forums when Light Sport was announced: "We don't want our airspace cluttered with new aircraft and new pilots." Similarly, they rant and scream about the new semi-automated quad-copter-like vehicles. They don't WANT flying to be easier, and more accessible to the average citizen. Despite such system being likely to help preserve small airports.....

Oh, and who is screaming for all NORDO airplanes to be banned and all aircraft must carry transponders and ADS-B out? The same folks who claim regulations are too onerous.....

Ron Wanttaja
 
Sorry, but this a classic example of "Correlation does not equal Causation." You could use the same plot as an explanation on why "Saturday Night Live" is not as funny as it used to be.
Agreed that temporal correlation does not prove causation. As I noted earlier in this thread, it would be best to see an actual study that attempts to properly study and tease out these factors. I'm fairly certain they all matter to some extent and many of these independent variables will not be uncorrelated.

In terms of the graph Ron, that should really be adjusted for the fraction of the fleet represented by each type, but is interesting in its own right. Of course, engine mechanical issues are a rather small fraction of total accidents, so while there may be a benefit of regulation in terms of engine certification, it could easily be offset in other accident categories. Or it could be that indeed regulation overall achieves one of its intended effects, namely increasing safety, but has other negative effects like increasing price and thereby decreasing volume. There is one way to make GA flying perfectly safe - completely ban it - then there will be no GA accidents.
 
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