Good Value Planes?

[EagleKnievel]

Hey everyone, I'm ambrose and Im student pilot. (Going to solo in about a week if the weather clears.)

Enough about me though, I want to know more about planes. Smaller, and cheaper ones in particular. Not ultralights, but something like a piper cherokee. I actually found one for sale down the road, about an hour away I'll include a link. Anyway, I guess I mostly would like advice on shopping for a plane. This one for instance, is probably cheap because it's getting close to needing an overhaul, but I'm not a mechanic or pro pilot. Just a 20 year old with a couple grand saved up over the year who's wanted to be a pilot since he was five. Anyway, that's enough rambling... Let me know what you guys think, any advice would be really appreciated! Thanks.

http://www.trade-a-plane.com/detail...e+Piston/1971/Piper/Cherokee+140/1778764.html

 

[Jim Logajan]

This one for instance, is probably cheap because it's getting close to needing an overhaul

From an operational safety aspects, I don't believe it is possible to tell whether it "needs" an overhaul based only on number of hours since last overhaul. From a market price perspective it may "need" one at the price being asked - or not.

Cost to overhaul an O-320 might be judged by several firms that have online price lists, such as:
http://www.coronaengines.com/Engine-Overhaul
http://www.heartoftexasaircraftengines.com/NO_SURPRISE_PRICING.html
http://www.dongeorgeaircraft.com/lycoming.htm

So budget ~$16,000. Now go look for other Cherokee 140s with similar avionics but low engine hours. Subtract $16k from those asking prices and you should get a number that few sellers will accept, but should serve as a starting point.

Keep in mind that you could probably safely fly the plane you are looking at for several more years without "needing" an overhaul.

 

[Jim Logajan]

As a new buyer, I'd recommend he take the SMOH number at face value. i.e. it's 2100 SMOH and needs a new engine. it "MIGHT" fly another 2000 hours until it "NEEDS" a rebuild but as a fresh buyer, I wouldn't even suggest that he attempt to make that determination…. Just assume that it needs a new engine…that's what the market will do.

Let's assume that to be the case. The question is whether the asking price has taken into account the cost to overhaul, relative to other asking prices. My own way (others will have their own methods) to get a SWAG on this was to plug the current asking prices in for all the Cherokee 140s in TAP and Controller that have a number - disregarding avionics, hours, etc. I got:

Controller: $27.3k mean, $8.1k std dev.
TAP: $25.9k mean, $5.4k std dev.

Since an overhaul should put the aircraft at least 1 std dev in value above the mean, the new asking value would be between 31.3k and 35.4k. Subtract off $16k and asking price without the overhaul should be between $19.4k and $15.3k.

Crude, I know, but the asking price looks plausible based on that math. Offer, obviously, is another story....

 

[Jim Logajan]

As a new buyer, I'd recommend he take the SMOH number at face value. i.e. it's 2100 SMOH and needs a new engine. it "MIGHT" fly another 2000 hours until it "NEEDS" a rebuild but as a fresh buyer, I wouldn't even suggest that he attempt to make that determination…. Just assume that it needs a new engine…that's what the market will do.

I'd agree with that. There are a lot of factors determining when an engine needs to be overhauled, both objective (engine compressions, metal in oil) and subjective (how many more hours do you feel comfortable putting on it compared to what the folks that build it say you should).

Hopefully you can make that engine last a long time, but if you can't swing an extra 15k to 20k for an overhaul at any time you may want to pass on this plane. Of course, any engine could end up needing major work at any time, but generally low and mid time engines are less likely to have four and five digit issues.

Also, seeing as it is an FL airplane I'd suggest checking it out well for corrosion. Even well intentioned owners who take steps to avoid corrosion have potentially costly issues with the aircraft. Different mechanics and FAA regional staff look at things differently, so be sure to get a fresh set of eyes on it!

Take a look at the table labeled "Accident Totals (Hours Since Overhaul)" in this article:

http://www.avweb.com/news/savvyaviator/savvy_aviator_45_how_risky_is_going_past_tbo_195241-1.html

The statistical analysis there suggests that anyone who proposes an overhaul of a perfectly working engine is dramatically increasing, not dramatically decreasing, the probability that the person taking said advice will suffer an engine failure.