Trying to predict the economics of aviation if the House DL Medical Bill took effect

[N918KT]

I'm not an economist but here is what I predict what would happen to aviation economically if the House Drivers License Medical Bill was passed.

LSA/SP: For LSA, I believe that we would see used and new SLSAs prices falling somewhat because then PPLs can fly bigger planes without having to drop down to LSA. However, I don't think the LSA and the Sport Pilots are toast. I still think SLSAs would be slightly more appealing to people who would want to just fly under sport pilot rules, since the SLSA prices may drop a little bit, but I don't know by how much to be exact. LSA/SP will still be a niche market.

Part 23 Aircraft/PPL: This market will definitely be growing, the used Part 23 airplanes like a 152, 172s and Cherokees will definitely go up in purchase prices. As for brand new Part 23 aircraft, I'm not too sure on effects of the prices for these airplanes. If this bill covers student pilots, we could see a rise in student pilots going for Private Pilot Certificates.

Am I right in these predictions?

What is your take on this on what would happen to aviation economically if this bill was passed?

 

[Jim Logajan]

Re: Trying to predict the economics of aviation if the House DL Medical Bill took eff

Part 23 Aircraft/PPL: This market will definitely be growing, the used Part 23 airplanes like a 152, 172s and Cherokees will definitely go up in purchase prices.

How many pilots do you think such a law would add to the rolls? I've never seen anyone claim the pilot population is declining due to medical issues (excluding simple aging.)

 

[Jim Logajan]

Re: Trying to predict the economics of aviation if the House DL Medical Bill took eff

How many pilots do you think such a law would add to the rolls? I've never seen anyone claim the pilot population is declining due to medical issues (excluding simple aging.)

Your assement is devoid of any reasoning. :mad2:

I asked a question that needs a reasonable estimate if the OP's opinions are to be judged valid. It was the OP that made an assessment, not I. I'm at a loss as to why my question is devoid of reasoning, but the OP's post with many opinions, which lacks any reference to statistics or facts, did not rate the same opinion from you.

So - anyone have a defensible estimate on how much, if any, this law might grow the pilot population enough to actually drive used non-LSA aircraft prices up due to increased demand?

As far as I can tell, his assessment assumes that there are a large number of prospective pilots who have decided that light sport aircraft wont do, but have potentially disqualifying medical conditions preventing them from getting private pilot. I find that hard to believe.

 

[Jim Logajan]

Re: Trying to predict the economics of aviation if the House DL Medical Bill took eff

It might be a large number if you count everyone that has ever been turned away, but I'd guess the vast majority of those folks moved on and bought a boat or dropped dead from their disqualifying ills. Doubt many of those guys would even know it became possible to start flying.

It might be a small number, too. Or a number with no foundation in reality - just anecdotes. Consider:

From 2011 to 2012 the number of sport-only pilot licenses increased by 427.
From 2011 to 2012 the number of active private pilot licenses decreased by 6440.

So the original post seems to imply that for every person who gets a sport pilot license there are 14 or more people who insist on flying on nothing less than a private pilot but can't get one due to medical problems, so they opt for no license at all. Seems exceedingly unlikely to happen that way.

Statistics source:
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/2012/