Different viruses behave different ways with respect to seasonality, though there is some commonality within virus families. We just don't know yet with this one. Clearly it is good if it is seasonal because that will at least buy some time.
Finally a voice of reason
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Good question. My limited understanding is that presently it is difficult to interpret any hemispheric differences right now because of differences in how much the virus has spread between countries in the northern and southern hemisphere. Perhaps next winter will provide more data on that.Van Johnston said:
All of the interventions in the US so far appear to have at most caused a decrease in the exponential growth rate of confirmed cases from a doubling time of 2.5 days to 4.3 days (of course, those may not have been the primary determining factors). If one assumes this will continue exponentially to 70% infection or immunity for herd immunity, this means the time to achieve that was moved from around April 24 to May 17.
Please note obvious limitations for the very simple model and assuming confirmed cases are a substantial fraction of the total. But this is a rough estimate of the likely maximum effect of those interventions based on current data.
Please note obvious limitations for the very simple model and assuming confirmed cases are a substantial fraction of the total. But this is a rough estimate of the likely maximum effect of those interventions based on current data.
Here is a very interesting read. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.22.20041079
Part of its conclusion is “One-time social distancing efforts will push the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic peak into the autumn, potentially exacerbating the load on critical care resources if there is increased wintertime transmissibility.”
Part of its conclusion is “One-time social distancing efforts will push the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic peak into the autumn, potentially exacerbating the load on critical care resources if there is increased wintertime transmissibility.”
Yes, good to read the actual studies rather than believing the talking heads.azure said:
The measures in the US may have bought 3 weeks delay (can’t know for certain yet) and might make things worse in the fall.
From a scientific perspective, the variety of approaches being attempted around the world is going to be a subject of study for some years to come.
