iflyforfun
New member
In discussing AOPA Summit on Avweb, Thomas Yarsley makes a really interesting comment. At a post air-show hanger party, he says they had their own mini-Summit. His comment:
"One consensus: 2020 is a looming A-bomb for GA. Most who spoke agreed that fully 50% of the existing GA fleet - and some associated percentage of GA pilots - will become "retired" in 2020 when the ADSB rules kick in, unless....
Unless one or more of the avionics manufacturers comes up with an affordable (read: <$6k, installed) one-box solution for meeting the requirements. And unless the FAA allows the industry to do it (STC, 337s, etc.). The "one-box" would have to include a glass 6-pack replacement (with all supporting sensors), a WAAS GPS, ADS-B in and out, blind encoder, and ELT."
Seems pretty spot on to me. In the next 6-7 years, we're looking at a great majority of the fleet facing a significant upgrade to stay functional for anything other than Sunday morning flying.
The traditional Garmin approach of bringing a $15k solution (plus installation) to the party will effectively kill a significant portion of the fleet. Heck, we joke that the G430 is ubiquitous, but looking at Barnstormers, a LOT of the fleet doesn't currently have a GPS that can be upgraded to WAAS ... and the 430 has already been abandoned.
I'm wondering if this represents a unique opportunity for someone like Dynon. They've built their entire business model around value for the dollar. This has forced them to focus on the experimental market because "value" and "certified" simply haven't fit in the same sentence. That said, pre-2020 all Dynon type upgrades were effectively optional. Come 2020, not so much the truth.
In addition to the avionics, Dynon has at least a start on the radio work.
Another potential player might be Aspen. They've brought out some really impressive products when you consider the certification hurdle they faced as well as the cost of competing commercial product.
What seems to always be the killer is the ABSURD certification expenses. I wonder if a real role for AOPA over the next 5 years could be on developing a streamlines certification solution that would address cost of complying with the ADSB mandate. Additionally, I believe there is a real need to address STC for installation (maybe, maybe not ... I'm no expert).
Anyway, with the headwinds that GA is facing, this really is another BIG problem. Our traditional industry response I don't think will address this ... we need to find another way to keep 40-50 year old planes (worth $25k-$35k) flying when the mandate hits. Without some type of innovative approach, I agree with Thomas that we'll see a significant portion of the fleet effectively grounded.
Thoughts?
"One consensus: 2020 is a looming A-bomb for GA. Most who spoke agreed that fully 50% of the existing GA fleet - and some associated percentage of GA pilots - will become "retired" in 2020 when the ADSB rules kick in, unless....
Unless one or more of the avionics manufacturers comes up with an affordable (read: <$6k, installed) one-box solution for meeting the requirements. And unless the FAA allows the industry to do it (STC, 337s, etc.). The "one-box" would have to include a glass 6-pack replacement (with all supporting sensors), a WAAS GPS, ADS-B in and out, blind encoder, and ELT."
Seems pretty spot on to me. In the next 6-7 years, we're looking at a great majority of the fleet facing a significant upgrade to stay functional for anything other than Sunday morning flying.
The traditional Garmin approach of bringing a $15k solution (plus installation) to the party will effectively kill a significant portion of the fleet. Heck, we joke that the G430 is ubiquitous, but looking at Barnstormers, a LOT of the fleet doesn't currently have a GPS that can be upgraded to WAAS ... and the 430 has already been abandoned.
I'm wondering if this represents a unique opportunity for someone like Dynon. They've built their entire business model around value for the dollar. This has forced them to focus on the experimental market because "value" and "certified" simply haven't fit in the same sentence. That said, pre-2020 all Dynon type upgrades were effectively optional. Come 2020, not so much the truth.
In addition to the avionics, Dynon has at least a start on the radio work.
Another potential player might be Aspen. They've brought out some really impressive products when you consider the certification hurdle they faced as well as the cost of competing commercial product.
What seems to always be the killer is the ABSURD certification expenses. I wonder if a real role for AOPA over the next 5 years could be on developing a streamlines certification solution that would address cost of complying with the ADSB mandate. Additionally, I believe there is a real need to address STC for installation (maybe, maybe not ... I'm no expert).
Anyway, with the headwinds that GA is facing, this really is another BIG problem. Our traditional industry response I don't think will address this ... we need to find another way to keep 40-50 year old planes (worth $25k-$35k) flying when the mandate hits. Without some type of innovative approach, I agree with Thomas that we'll see a significant portion of the fleet effectively grounded.
Thoughts?
DF
